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Chart Art: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Double Bottom Pattern Above $55
U.S. crude oil prices bounced higher after hitting $55.00. Will the Black Crack find enough momentum to bust through the closest resistance zone?
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The Dollar Will Save the Penalty. Forecast as of 06.05.2025
Despite U.S. stock indices falling due to renewed White House tariff threats, EUR/USD bears are staying in the fight. They’re counting on Fed support to restore confidence in the dollar. Let’s discuss it and make a trading plan. Major Takeaways The Fed plans to keep the rate at 4.5%. Odds of resuming monetary expansion in June are fading. The central bank is choosing between recession and stagflation. Buying EUR/USD on a breakout above $1.1355 remains relevant. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar The truth always comes out. No matter how much the White House hides its aggressive stance, Donald Trump’s 100%… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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USDJPY Technical Analysis – Waller’s scenario #2 is playing out. Now what?
Fundamental
Overview
The USD got a boost across
the board yesterday on positive expectations about the first trade deal that
eventually was revealed to be with the UK. Trump announced
that tariffs on cars and steel will be lowered but the most important part was
that the 10% “global tariff” will remain in place.
The US officials
highlighted that the 10% is going to be the floor and the trade deal with the
UK is going to be the baseline for all other deals. There’s a risk now that we
reached the peak in de-escalation and other countries might not like the 10%
floor, especially the EU. For now, the Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s scenario
#2 is playing out.
Recall, that he said 10% or
lower tariffs would make him less inclined to cut rates faster. This is now triggering
a repricing in interest rates as the market scaled back the easing expectations
to 68 bps by year-end. We were at more than 80 bps at the start of the week. It
gave also the greenback a boost as the market unwound the crowded dollar
shorts.
On the JPY side, the
currency has been driven mainly by global events rather than domestic
fundamentals. Alongside the Swiss Franc, it’s been the favoured safe haven in
the currencies space amid the swings in risk sentiment. On the monetary policy
front, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged as expected and
delivered a dovish message.
This was then echoed by BoJ
Governor Ueda which placed a great deal on trade developments. In summary, the
central bank is likely to go faster on rate hikes in case we get a good trade
deal and delay rate adjustments in case the trade deal disappoints.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY continues to erase the April losses and it’s now approaching
the major trendline. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop back into the 140.00 handle, while the buyers will look for
a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 151.00 handle next.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have now an upward trendline defining the bullish structure on this
timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a
break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing
into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the
pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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We might have reached the peak in the de-escalation trade
If this trade deal with the UK was announced two or three weeks ago, I would have said that it’s really good for the markets and would have been very upbeat on risk sentiment. The context is a bit different now, in my opinion.
Recall back in the middle of April, Fed’s Waller outlined his strategy to deal with tariffs. He had two scenarios in mind: tariffs around 25% on average and tariffs around 10%. The second scenario is the one that is playing out and it involves the Fed being less inclined to cut rates faster.
In fact, the market is taking this first trade deal as the more hawkish scenario for the Fed and the pricing is converging towards the original Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025 (the pricing is now showing 68 bps by year-end compared to 80 bps at the start of the week).
The problem here is that with new information throughout the weeks, the 10% has become a “meh” outcome. After April 9 pause, the market rallied on expectations that eventually the US would have gone for 10% reciprocal tariffs and would have lowered the tariffs on China back to the original 50-60% rate. This is what the whole “de-escalation trade” was based on.
We have now reached the peak in this trade because the US said that the 10% will be the floor for all other deals and we got a report from New York Post yesterday saying that the US is considering lowering the tariffs on China to 50-54%. Recall, the market was expecting 10% global tariffs and 50% on China before the April 2 surprise.
All of this should now be priced in and the market’s reaction to the news of the US lowering tariffs on China could be a hint. In fact, you would have expected a strong rally, but the market actually went in the opposite way. Nonetheless, this has opened up for a weekend risk scenario in which the market opens up with a positive gap next week, so the selling pressure into the weekend could be limited (I mean it doesn’t look good from a risk management perspective for the bears).
So, what makes this first trade deal a “meh” outcome is that not only we have some overstretched positioning but we also have the risk of retaliation now. The EU has been repeating that they won’t accept the 10% tariff rate and has been threatening a retaliation in case negotiations fail. But the US is saying that 10% is the best anyone can get and tariffs could be even higher.
Next week will be the tell. If we open up with a positive gap and the stock market then performs badly throughout the week, then it could be a signal that we have indeed reached the peak (at least in the short term). I would expect the bears to seize the opportunity and start selling at the start of the week. You either catch the top or you get it wrong, but from a risk/reward perspective it doesn’t look bad at all.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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Nippon Steel says position on planned acquisition of US Steel remains unchanged
- Taking all stake continues to be the starting point for negotiations with the US government
- We are presenting a range of proposals in talks with the US government
- CFIUS expected to make a recommendation to US Steel deal to Trump by 21 May
- A decision by Trump is expected by 5 June
At least now we have some key dates to attach to how things are playing out on this matter. As a reminder, Biden blocked the deal as one of his final acts as president. And in his most recent comments last month, Trump said that “we don’t want to see it go to Japan”. So, there’s that.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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Palladium price: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $980.03 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $976.60.
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FX option expiries for 9 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.
The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 mark. Amid a firmer dollar, the expiries here could help to act as a bit of a floor for price action before we get to US trading. That is considering the likely quieter period in European trading.
Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 145.00 level but it isn’t one that ties to any technical significance. But the expiries could also keep a floor on price action, amid some extension of the range in play during the session ahead.
However, dollar and broader risk sentiment remains the bigger driver at the moment. So if we do see risk pick up, expect that to underpin the greenback as well with the expiries taking a backseat.
All eyes today though will be on any follow up trade headlines ahead of US-China talks over the weekend. That overrides everything else before we look to close out the week.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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How did US tariffs impact China’s latest trade numbers?
In overall terms, the numbers here were much better than expected as China exports in particular held up. However, the devil is always in the details. China’s exports to the US actually fell by nearly 18% on the month from March to April. So, what gives?
It is basically this: How China has been preparing itself ahead of this tariffs eventuality with the US
China is pretty much just rerouting goods by origin washing as exports to Vietnam especially surged on the month.
The good news for the US is that perhaps this might even just be a temporary thing. After speaking to US retailers last week, Trump looks to have given some assurance of sorts as we’re starting to even see a pick up in China container ships leaving for the US now:
Is this a start of a return to some form of new normality? If so, it’s possibly a hint that the US will lower China tariffs as we look to talks over the weekend.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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The technician’s creed
The monthly chart of Exxon Mobil (XOM) reveals a striking repetition of bearish technical patterns, combining rounding tops, bearish divergence, and EMA crossovers.
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