НОВОСТИ И БЛОГ ФОРЕКС

IMF meetings have been taking place this week and IMF Georgieva is speaking. She says:

• Central bankers need to finish the job with inflation
• Agees on the two rebel fiscal policy buffers, revive medium-term growth prospects
• we need to address the challenges of rising debt, which is particularly severe in some countries
• IMF reforms to debt restructuring process should make it smoother and speedier.

Nothing new here.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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• Nasdaq index gets creamed as high flyers take it on the chin
• Feds Financial Stability Report: Persistent inflation/tigher policy biggest risk
• Bank of Canada’s Macklem: Inflation is continuing to become less broad-based
• Crude oil futures settle at $82.22. What are the technicals telling traders.
• ECBs Muller: Sees a few more rate cuts by year end after June
• IMFs Japan Mission Chief: Weak yens impact on Japans economic growth is net positive
• BOEs Mann: Central banks will have to use autonomy effectively
• Baker Hughes oil rig count 511 vs 506 last week
• European indices close the week with mixed results
• IMF’s Georgieva: Need to finish the job on inflation
• ECB Wunsche: I dont have base case, but unlikely we cut only once in 2024
• More from BOE Ramsden: We will take into account Forex implications for inflation
• More Goolsbee:There are some measures in the economy, that historically don’t portend well
• More Goolsbee: We have done great on the employment mandate but not on inflation
• Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee: Progress on US inflation has installed
• BOE Ramsden: There are likely to be bumps in the disinflation process
• Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee expected to speak shortly
• Kickstart your FX trading for April 19 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• ECB Pres. Lagarde: if inflation criteria is met it will be appropriate cut rates
• The CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: A round trip for markets as the jitters fade

The focus today was on the big-cap tech stocks today. The Nasdaq index got creamed with a decline of -2.05%. That was the largest decline since January 31 when the index fell -2.23% The move lower was initially off of disappointing forward guidance from Netflix after its earning announcement after the close on Thursdays. Its shares tumbled -9.09%.

The kick to the downside got another shove, just before the open Super Micro Computers announced its earnings date, but did not to pre-announce its earnings for the fiscal third quarter. SMCI has been one of the darlings of the 1Q as it tagged along with Nvidia. According to sources, in seven of the past eight quarters, the company issued a press release announcing preliminary results ahead of its routine earnings release, generally raising financial guidance. That was not to be today, and the stock fell sharply in reaction. That momentum continued in the US session with the stock plunging 23.16% to $713.65. The high price in the 1Q reached $1229.00. The decline. Nvidia as well. It shares fell $84.31 or -10.0% to $762.

BTW Super Micro Computers will announce their earnings on April 30. Nvidia doesn’t announce until May 22

Other big movers today included a number of different chip stocks:

• AMD, – 5.44%.
• Micro -4.61%
• Broadcom -4.31%
• Meta Platforms -4.13%
• CrowdStrike holdings -3.99%
• Taiwan semiconductor -3.46%
• Amazon -2.56%
• Intel -2.40%
• Qualcomm -2.36%
• Tesla, -1.92%.

Next week, the earnings calendar kicks into full gear Below is a sampling of some of the major earnings releases. :

• Monday: Verizon,SAP
• Tuesday: GM, Tesla,Visa, Texas Instruments
• Wednesday: Boeing, AT&T, General Dynamics, Meta Platforms, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, ServiceNow
• Thursday: American Airlines, Caterpillar,Southwest Airlines, Bristol-Myers Squibb,Microsoft, Alphabet,Intel
• Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron

In the US debt market today, yields move modestly lower.

• 2-year yield, 4.99%, unchanged
• 5-year yield 4.671%, -1.6 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.622%, -2.4 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.715% -2.9 basis points

For the trading week yields moved higher as markets reacted to the Fed’s shift toward rates steady for longer:

• 2-year yield +8.7 basis points
• 5-year yield +11.4 basis points
• 10-year yield +9.7 basis points
• 30-year yield +8.3 basis points

A snapshot of the forex market at the week’s end has the CHF as the strongest of the major currencies on the back of a safety bid.

The GBP was the weakest. BOEs Ramsden commented that:

• Over the last few months, I have become more confident in the evidence that risks to persistence and domestic inflation pressures are receding.
• Balance of domestic risks to the outlook for UK inflation is now tilted to the downside.

That helped to push the GBPUSD to the downside and the pair moved to the lowest level for the year and going back to November 14. The price is also testing the 61.8% of the move higher from the October 2023 low at 1.23635, and the high of a swing area going back to first quarter of 2023 at 1.2368. The low price today in the GBPUSD reached 1.2366.

Fed’s Goolsbee closed up the Fedspeak ahead of the quiet period (the Fed is to next announce on May 1). Goolsbee discussed the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting a stall in progress on inflation and advocating for a cautious approach to interest rates until more clarity is achieved. He affirmed that the Federal Reserve’s current restrictive monetary policy remains appropriate but emphasized that future policy adjustments will be data-driven. Goolsbee pointed out the persistent challenge posed by high housing inflation and noted that there is room for improvement in services inflation through increases in labor supply. He questioned whether strong GDP and job numbers might indicate an overheating economy contributing to inflationary pressures, though he also acknowledged that not all data suggest labor market overheating. While the Fed has successfully maintained low unemployment, it has struggled to meet its inflation mandate. Goolsbee warned against maintaining a high level of restrictiveness for too long due to potential negative impacts on employment. He described the policy trade-offs as increasingly complex and noted that the real Federal Funds rate is historically high. Optimistically, he projected that inflation would return to the 2% target over a reasonable period, and he did not dismiss any policy options, including rate hikes if necessary, to manage economic conditions.

Meanwhile, ECB officials today including Lagarge. Muller and Wunsch advocating for multiple rate cuts starting in June.

The US core PCE data will be released on Friday and will be key for the Fed outlook going forward.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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The votes are building for the ousting of House Speaker Mike Johnson.

• Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) announced his co-sponsorship of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) resolution to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his position.
• Gosar, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, expressed his support shortly after the House passed a foreign aid package without border security measures, which was supported by Democrats.
• In his statement, Gosar criticized the lack of attention to border security and accused the current Speaker of prioritizing the interests of what he described as warmongers and the military industrial complex over national interests.
• Gosar is the third Republican to support the resolution, following Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) who endorsed it earlier.

So what does it take to oust the Speaker of the House?

To vote out the Speaker of the House in the United States, the process generally involves a motion or resolution being presented to the House of Representatives calling for a vote of no confidence or a vote to vacate the chair. Here’s how it typically works:

1. Introduction of the Motion: A member of the House would need to introduce a motion or resolution to declare the office of the Speaker vacant. This is sometimes referred to as a “motion to vacate the chair.”

2. Scheduling the Vote: The motion would then need to be scheduled for a vote. The scheduling can be immediate or could take some time, depending on the rules of the House and the decisions by the House leadership.

3. Majority Vote Required: For the motion to pass, a majority of the voting members must vote in favor of it. This means that more than half of the members present and voting must agree to remove the Speaker.

4. Political Considerations: Such a motion is highly political and can be contentious. It generally reflects significant dissatisfaction with the Speaker’s leadership either from within their own party or from the opposition. It is relatively rare due to the potential for significant political fallout and the disruption it can cause within the House.

5. Outcome: If the motion passes, the office of the Speaker becomes vacant, and the House would then proceed to elect a new Speaker. If the motion fails, the Speaker remains in office.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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