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ECB reportedly have no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bonds

ECB reportedly have no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bonds

It is said that the policymakers hadn’t reached a point of discussing the need to dip into their emergency bond-buying scheme to offer support for French debt. However, the sources say that there are varying degrees of concern surrounding French bonds.

For some context, French bonds suffered quite a selloff last week after a snap election was called. That came after Le Pen’s far-right faction, National Rally, is looking to take over the political stronghold there. The risk premium of French bonds against their German counterparts had risen by the most since 2011.

But there are no plans yet to discuss the need to utilise the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) with regards to this matter, at least for now. The other issue is that France is running a higher deficit than what the EU rules allow for. That’s a challenge for TPI utilisation as it requires countries to comply with parameters surrounding the EU’s fiscal rules.

Anyway, the main worry now is that France may see a similar political transformation to that of Italy in 2022, when Meloni took charge. In the case of Italy, Meloni has toned down her hostile approach towards the EU. And in the case of France, policymakers and lawmakers would be hoping for the same if Le Pen rises to power.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Australian jobs data (May) – ANZ private survey -2.1% m/m and -18.1% y/y

Australian jobs data (May) – ANZ private survey -2.1% m/m and -18.1% y/y

Some local Australian data, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads for May 2024:

  • -2.1% m/m
  • -18.1% y/y

Says ANZ on the release:

  • -23.9% from its peak in November 2022
  • still more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels
  • “The (revised) ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series shows a softening over 2024, with an 8.2% fall since the end of last year. Other data also show the labour market is cooling, but only gradually”

Last week we had official employment data, still strong but not as strong as it was:

AUD/USD is on its low for the session, down a little to 0.6601

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China rate setting and data dump

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China rate setting and data dump

Weekend
news brought little of note. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President
Neel Kashkari spoke on Sunday, US time, with US media, CBS’ “Face
the Nation”. He said that its reasonable that a rate cut could
come in December (see bullets above for more from K). European
Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s
central bank) said that with ECB projections of its 2% target
inflation rate only being met towards the end of 2025 that its was
important to not allow inflation to remain above target into 2026
(again, see bullets above).

During
the Tokyo morning we had Core Machinery Orders data for April from Japan.
These fell m/m, for the first time in three months, but not as much
as expected. The y/y improved. This was enough for Japan’s Cabinet
Office to say its seeing pick up moves in this data series.

It
was soon over to China for a barrage of data and events. After the
USD/CNY reference rate setting the People’s Bank of China injected
182bn yuan (vs. the 237bn maturing, and thus a 55bn yuan drain) in a
one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) at an unchanged rate of
2.5%. The unchanged rate is strongly suggestive of unchanged Loan
Prime Rates (LPR) to come from the Bank later this week, on the 20th.

Current
LPR rates are:

  • 3.45% for the one year

  • 3.95% for the five year

We
then had data for China’s
new home prices for
May. These fell
at their
fastest pace in more than 9 years in May.

Nästa
up were the figures from China
for
May
industrial output, which
fell
short of expectations.
Retail
sales, however,
beat forecasts with
sales
growing
at their
quickest since February (holiday
boost cited).
This
is a positive sign for an improvement in domestic consumption. Fixed asset investment expanded but
poor property investment was another indication of the prolonged and ongoing property market downturn. High
property sector and local
government debt, along
with inflation only now recovering from deflation,
continues
to be a drag
on the economy.

Across
major forex rates move were very subdued. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are a
little soft, in small ranges only. USD/JPY remained fairly steady a
few points around 157.45. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is set to appear in
the Diet (the Japanese parliament) from 0730 GMT (0330 US Eastern
time).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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