UK election: JP Morgan forecasts positive if Labour wins: move beyond policy paralysis

June 11, 2024 1:44 am

JP Morgan says a Labour win in the UK election would be a net positive for UK markets:

  • Labour party is occupying a centrist platform
  • perception of policy paralysis is set to move behind us
  • Labour agenda is modestly pro-growth
  • with a likely cautious fiscal approach

Much of the note is picking apart impacts on various sectors of the economy, but more broadly JPM note that since 1970 a Conservative election win sees an average 1% gain in a month for the UK stockmarkrt, while a Labour win sees an average 2% fall. But, this time:

  • “a Labour win will likely be seen as a positive for the UK market”

The contenders, Sunak and Starmer. The election is on July 4.

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