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Bitcoin Halving and Geopolitics: The Liquidity Conundrum

Bitcoin Halving and Geopolitics: The Liquidity Conundrum

The long-awaited day of the 4th phase of Bitcoin’s halving is looming in the cryptocurrency sector. The
countdown to this event shows that it could happen around the final hours of Friday evening if
you are located in the Americas or Saturday morning if you are in Asia or
Europe.

According to the market metrics, the event is much anticipated and should be discounted well in advance of its actual occurrence. In contrast to unpredictable overnight barrages of rockets in the heat of the Middle East, the halving event has a clear outcome—the amount of BTC rewards
that miners get for completing a block will be reduced in half to 3.125 BTC
from the current 6.25.

This will inevitably lead to less supply from miners, but
does it change the liquidity of the overall market? We will attempt to answer that question in the coming paragraphs, and while at it, we
will also highlight some challenges related to the current geopolitical
landscape and the resulting jittery market conditions we have recently observed.

Are Previous Halvings Linked to Liquidity Squeezes?

Every time 210,000 blocks are mined, the Bitcoin network’s protocol cuts in half the amount of new rewards. As highlighted by the institutional research team at Coinbase, this means that the newly
minted supply will drop from 900 Bitcoins per day to 450 Bitcoins per day. At
current market prices ($65,000 per BTC), this equates to roughly $30,000,000
worth of new supply per day or $900,000,000 per month.

These figures are rather low compared to the average daily trading volumes across crypto exchanges, especially since the launch of BTC ETF trading, which triggered increased interest in the asset
class.

The amount of tradable Bitcoin has also been on the rise
during the recent bull run that accelerated since early Q4 2023. According to
the team at Coinbase Institutional Research, active BTC supply, defined as Bitcoin moved in the past three months, rose to 1.3 million. This figure is in comparison to 150,000, which was
mined during that time.

In a statement shared with Finance Magnates, Coinbase’s Research
Analyst, David Han, mentioned that the decline in BTC mining issuance
could create new supply-side dynamics that are constructive in the longer term.

Han expressed his doubts as to whether that can result in
an imminent supply crunch: “We find that the largest contributors to increased
BTC supply during bull markets come from long-term wallets beginning to
activate instead of from newly mined BTC.”

Crypto and Fiat Liquidity Cycles – the Signal and the Noise

A widely held belief in the cryptocurrency community is that
halving events are usually followed by a significant rally in the value of
their digital assets. While there is some historical correlation to corroborate
this notion, science has long established – correlation does not imply
causation.

The logical fallacy where two events that occur at a similar
time have a cause-effect relationship is at the center of spurious
relationships – two events can be correlated, but that connection may not be
causal.

With only three halving events behind us and a fourth one
brewing, one can observe correlations, but not necessarily cause-effect
relationships. Halving events don’t perfectly coincide with central bank
liquifying cycles, but as the chart below shows, there is some food for thought
for risk-management teams and traders alike.

Around the first halving in 2012, the 美联储 launched the third
chapter of its post-financial crisis quantitative easing program (QE3), shortly
followed by the first US debt ceiling crisis and the loss of the reserve
currency issuer’s AAA rating.

The second one, in 2016, was followed by the Bank of England’s post-Brexit ramp-up of bond buying in tandem with the ECB’s asset purchase program. Fast-forward to 2020, and we all remember the central bank and fiscal policy bazookas firing left and right with fiat liquidity so ample that it ultimately caused the sharpest spike in inflationary pressures globally since the 1970s.

Geopolitical Blocks

It was an early morning in the Middle East, as a
well-telegraphed attack by Iran had been unleashed upon Israel. With all other
financial markets closed, it was up to crypto to reflect the current state of
mind (or compute).

The old Wall Street saying, “up the stairs, down the
elevator,” came to mind as BTC and ETH dropped in tandem in rapidly dwindling liquidity conditions. That night, Coinbase registered about $2 billion worth of liquidations, the company’s institutional research team
highlighted in a recent weekly market call.

In contrast to the rather gradual price action that unfolded in the aftermath of the October 7th attack on Israel by Hamas, the Iranian attack, despite being well-telegraphed before the weekend, did result in material price action across the crypto market.

At one point, Pax Gold, a crypto token supposed to be fully backed by gold, spiked about $1000 at a time when the physical gold market, which is underpinning the coin’s value, wasn’t open. The magnitude
of the attack certainly surprised market participants, while some automatic
“stop trading” commands must have been unleashed across algorithmic trading
strategies.

Events centered around geopolitical stress have certainly caused some leveraged players to rethink, not only in the crypto market. Fed chair Powell’s higher rates for a longer period re-pivot raise questions about a widely expected easing of monetary policy.

To Bid, or Not to Bid

As the halving cycles come and go, the impact of these
events could lessen in time. Since most bitcoins have already been mined, the current market liquidity state is much more about the existing supply of BTC on the market than newly mined coins.

A supply crunch overnight is the least likely event, and if
very recent history is any guide, geopolitical tensions can create more
volatility or liquidity waves on cryptocurrency and traditional financial
markets.

Guided by risk-on and risk-off flows, cryptocurrencies have
been defying the trend occasionally, but at their core they remain a high-risk
asset with a digital store of value component behind it. Only time will tell whether or not that narrative has become a well-established characteristic, but so
far, so good.

As the halving event comes and passes us by, it is the
central banks that will have the ball in their court – ready to do whatever it
takes to address inflationary challenges or supply more fiat liquidity to the
monetary system.

With Bitcoin ETFs breaking new ground, the liquidity
situation for the king of crypto has significantly improved. As David Han outlines: “Net US spot ETFs inflows to date approximately offset the BTC that was
mined in the previous six months.”

This article was written by Victor Golovtchenko at www.financemagnates.com.

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Brazil Leads Financial Inclusion in Latin America: Records 70% Debit/Credit Card Usage

Brazil Leads Financial Inclusion in Latin America: Records 70% Debit/Credit Card Usage

In Latin America, Brazil leads in financial inclusion with 70% adoption of debit or credit cards. The country has recorded 55% card usage and an outstanding level of real-time payment usage.
This positive trend is contributed by the elimination of barriers to payment
infrastructure in the country.

These are the findings of a joint study between Nubank
and Mastercard, which highlighted the path individuals pursue toward financial
inclusion. The study, which is based on data from 3.6 million Nubank’s
customers, also highlighted the impact of financial inclusion and long-term economic
growth.

Unlocking Financial Inclusion

Speaking about the report, Cristina Junqueira, the Co-Founder and Chief Growth Officer of Nubank, mentioned: “Although access to financial services in and of itself has had a major impact, advancing the literacy journey on these topics brings greater and more sustainable benefits not only to individuals but to the community as a whole.”

The study noted that Brazil has significantly
progressed in financial inclusion compared to other countries in Latin America. The World Bank Global
Findex shows that the country has 70% card penetration and a growing trend in
real-time payment usage.

Additionally, the report underscored the importance of
providing financial access to underserved populations. Remarkably, 60% of
Nubank’s customers transitioned from access to usage within 24 months,
irrespective of income level. Notably, Prepaid cards have enabled most users
to access loan products and investments.

Addressing Barriers

However, despite this progress in financial inclusion, there
are barriers. While 84% of adults in Brazil have access to financial accounts,
many lack the necessary financial literacy to maximize the benefits. In order
to address this challenge, the study recommended active product usage and
financial education initiatives.

Mastercard’s Division President for Brazil, Marcelo
Tangioni, added: “The journey to financial security and health is
non-linear and full of obstacles – the only way to accelerate this journey is
by understanding the barriers and then building and deploying inclusive digital
solutions.”

“Through this study, we have clear evidence that
frequent, consistent, and responsible use of digital payment tools is critical
to building trust and putting people on a path towards a more sustainable
financial health.”

Last year, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, secured a payment institution license from the country’s central bank. This approval allows the exchange to operate as a payment institution and electronic money issuer. As a licensed payments provider, the exchange
offers a range of digital banking services.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Crude oil futures settle at $82.22. What are the technicals telling traders.

Crude oil futures settle at $82.22. What are the technicals telling traders.

The price of crude oil settled at $82.22. That’s up $0.12 or 0.14%.

The high price extended all the way up to $85.64 soon after the Israeli strike on Iran. Low price was at $81.13.

The high price for the week reached $86.18. The low price was at $81.06. Last week’s closing level was at $85.66. So at current levels the price is down -3.99% on the week. The high price for April (and for 2024) reached $87.67 on April 12. That was the highest level going back to October 23, 2023.

Looking at the daily chart, the corrective moved to the downside this week was able to get back below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2023 high price. That midpoint level comes in a $81.37 (see chart below). As mentioned the low price for the week was at $81.06 yesterday (and $81.13 today) below the midpoint, but momentum could not be sustained.

It would take a move below the 50% and staying below, to increase the bearish bias in the commodity and give sellers more confidence.

In a week that started with Iran bombing Isreal, and ending with Isreal bombing Iran, the price moving lower “is a result”. HOwever, that 50% midpoint will still remain as a key barometer for both buyers and sellers in the new trading week. Stay above it and the buyers are in play. Move below it and the selling is likely to increase in intensity.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Frictionless Finance: Why Fast Payment Systems Are the Cash Kings of Tomorrow

Frictionless Finance: Why Fast Payment Systems Are the Cash Kings of Tomorrow

Cash may be king, but
it’s a clunky monarch, weighed down by the burdens of physicality. The digital
age demands a more agile ruler, one that thrives in the realm of ones and
zeroes. Enter Fast Payment Systems (FPS), the fintech upstarts poised to dethrone
cash and usher in a new era of frictionless finance
.

FPS boast a simple yet
revolutionary proposition: instant transfers between bank accounts, 24/7, 365
days a year. No more waiting days for checks to clear or scrambling to find an
ATM on a Sunday afternoon. This streamlined efficiency has the potential to
reshape our financial interactions, impacting everything from how we split a
restaurant bill with friends to how small businesses manage their cash flow.

But the true power of
FPS lies in their democratizing potential
. Unlike traditional banking systems,
which can often exclude unbanked or underbanked populations, FPS can operate
entirely on mobile phones. This opens the door for millions who have been locked
out of the formal financial system to participate in the digital economy.
Imagine a street vendor in a developing nation, previously limited to cash
transactions, now able to accept instant payments via their smartphone. The
implications for financial inclusion are vast.

However, the road to
becoming the king of the financial jungle isn’t paved with good intentions
alone. There are challenges FPS must overcome before they can truly claim the
crown.

One major hurdle is
interoperability. Currently, many FPS function in silos, unable to seamlessly
connect with systems in other countries. This fragmentation creates a fractured
experience for users, hindering the potential for global e-commerce and cross-border
transactions. Imagine a freelancer in Argentina struggling to receive payment
from a client in Singapore because their respective FPS systems don’t speak the
same digital language. Until a level of international cooperation fosters
interoperability, the true potential of FPS will remain unrealized.

Security is another
concern
. The lightning-fast nature of FPS transactions necessitates robust
security measures to prevent fraud and cyberattacks. After all, a system
designed for instant transfers becomes equally adept at facilitating instant
theft. Balancing speed with security will be a crucial tightrope walk for FPS
providers.

There’s also the
question of who gets to build and control these systems. Should the power lie
with governments, seeking to promote financial inclusion and stability? Or
should private companies take the lead, leveraging their expertise in
innovation and efficiency? The answer likely lies somewhere in between, with a
public-private partnership model fostering collaboration while ensuring
responsible governance.

Despite these
challenges, the momentum behind FPS is undeniable. Their convenience,
accessibility, and potential to empower the financially excluded make them a
compelling force in the evolving financial landscape. As these systems mature,
iron out their wrinkles, and establish a global network of interconnectivity,
they have the potential to become the cornerstone of a new financial era – one
where cash, the cumbersome king, finally gets dethroned.

This digital revolution
won’t happen overnight. But with each tap, swipe, and instant transfer
facilitated by FPS, we inch closer to a world where financial transactions are
as seamless and ubiquitous as the internet itself. The future of finance may
not be entirely cashless, but it will undoubtedly be driven by the swift and
agile forces embodied by Fast Payment Systems.

This article was written by Pedro Ferreira at www.financemagnates.com.

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The Paper Chase: Can AI Outsmart Itself in the Battle Against Deepfakes?

The Paper Chase: Can AI Outsmart Itself in the Battle Against Deepfakes?

The realm of digital
identity has always been a precarious one, a constant dance between convenience
and security. In the past, a grainy webcam selfie and some hastily typed
information might have sufficed for verification. But in the age of deepfakes
and ever-evolving fraud tactics, the stakes have never been higher. The game of
digital deception has gotten a nightmarish upgrade, and the line between real
and fabricated blurs with every passing day.

Companies like Socure are wielding the double-edged sword of artificial intelligence (AI) in the fight
against identity theft. Their latest weapon? DocV, a document verification
solution that boasts the ability to pierce the veil of deepfakes and expose stolen
identities in a blink – all under two seconds. It’s a David versus Goliath
scenario on a digital battlefield, with meticulously crafted AI on both sides.

But is this a fight AI
can truly win against itself? Can a technology designed to mimic and manipulate
be effectively countered by its own creation? The answer lies in understanding
the cunning of both sides.

On the one hand,
fraudsters have become Picassos of the digital realm. They wield generative AI
tools to craft hyper-realistic deepfakes – not just faces, but entire
identities complete with fabricated documents and stolen personal information
(PII). These deepfakes are so convincing that they can bypass even the most
vigilant human eye, let alone legacy biometric and template-based security
systems
.

Socure, however, takes a
different approach. Instead of brute force pattern-matching, they’ve trained
their AI using a vast library of self-generated deepfakes. It’s a sort of
inoculation – exposing their system to the very virus it’s designed to combat.
By ingesting thousands of meticulously crafted deepfakes encompassing a
dizzying array of ethnicities, ages, and body types, Socure’s AI learns to
recognize the subtle tells, the uncanny valley imperfections that betray the
artificial hand behind the mask. It’s a constant game of chess: anticipating and adapting to the ever-shifting tactics of fraudsters.

The battleground extends
beyond faces and documents. Barcodes, once a reliable source of verification,
are now susceptible to manipulation. Here, too, Socure employs AI to identify
anomalies – inconsistencies in encoding or even the telltale signs of a machine-generated
barcode. It’s a forensic analysis on a microscopic level, a detective story
unfolding in the digital realm.

But Socure’s ambitions
go beyond mere document verification. They delve into the murky world of
identity graphs, analyzing the connections and correlations between seemingly
disparate pieces of information. This allows them to paint a holistic picture
of the person behind the ID, identifying suspicious patterns or red flags that
might otherwise go unnoticed. It’s a web of trust and deceit laid bare, a map
that exposes the fraudulent footprints masquerading as legitimate identities.

The implications of this
AI arms race extend far beyond the realm of finance. Age verification for
online gaming, driver verification for ride-sharing services – the potential
applications are vast. It’s a future where the very essence of who we are online
hinges on the ability of AI to discern truth from meticulously crafted lies.

Yet, a nagging question
remains. As AI becomes more sophisticated on both sides of the fence, can we
ever truly declare victory? Is this an endless duel destined to escalate with
each iteration? The answer, perhaps, lies not just in the technology itself,
but in the way we wield it.

Socure’s success hinges
on transparency and continuous improvement. By making their AI development
process open for scrutiny, they build trust and invite collaboration. The fight
against deepfakes isn’t a solitary endeavor; it requires a united front, a community
of experts constantly refining and updating the tools at our disposal.

The digital age has
ushered in an era of unprecedented convenience, but it has also opened doors
for those who seek to exploit its vulnerabilities. The battle against deepfakes
is a stark reminder that the line between progress and peril is razor-thin. But
as long as we leverage the power of AI not just for profit, but for the greater
good, we might just hold the edge in this never-ending game of digital
deception.

This article was written by Pedro Ferreira at www.financemagnates.com.

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IMFs Japan Mission Chief: Weak yens impact on Japans economic growth is net positive

IMFs Japan Mission Chief: Weak yens impact on Japans economic growth is net positive

The IMFs Japan MIssion Chief says:

  • Weak yen’s impact on Japan’s economic growth is net positive
  • Bank of Japan will likely have room to raise interest rates further, though future tightening must be gradual and data-dependent
  • When asked if recent yen moves justify foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities, IMF’s Japan mission chief says she firmly believes G7 nations, including Japan, are committed to flexible FX regimes

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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European indices close the week with mixed results

European indices close the week with mixed results

While US stocks, the major European indices are more mixed today and this week.

For the day:

  • German DAX, -0.56%
  • France CAC, point changed
  • UK’s FTSE 100 +0.24%
  • Spain’s Ibex -0.33%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12%

For the trading week:

  • German DAX, -1.08%
  • France CAC,+0.14%
  • UK FTSE 100, -1.25%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.41%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.47%

By comparison, the broader US stock indices are sharply lower:

  • S&P index -2.77% – it’s worst weeks since September 2023.
  • NASDAQ index -5.01% – it’s worst week since a -5.65% decline in the week of October 31, 2022

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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