FOREX NEWS & BLOG

• US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ indices at new records again
• Trump: We will see if we can make deal with EU on Sunday.
• Crude oil settles at $65.16
• It will be a tidal wave of earnings and economic data next week.
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -7 at 415
• EUs Von der Leyen: Will meet with Pres. Trump in Scotland on Sunday
• European indices close mixed to end the trading week
• Australia to import US beef for the first time
• Canada May budget balance C$-0.23 billion vs surplus $1.17 billion in May 2024
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remains steady at 2.4%
• More Trump: Meeting UK PM tonight. may even approve a trade deal. GBPUSD is lower.
• Trump: When you have a strong dollar you can’t sell anything
• Reuters Poll: Bank of Canada will cut overnight rate to 2.25% or lower by end of year
• Trump: There is a 50-50 chance of a deal with the EU. Powell may be ready to cut rates
• WSJ: Companies are absorbing tariff costs so far
• Reuters: OPEC+ panel is reportedly likely to keep oil policy steady
• US advanced durable goods sales for June -9.3% versus -10.8% estimate
• ECB’s Nagel: Holding rates makes sense after eight cuts
• The USD is higher to start the day. What do the technical levels tell investors/traders
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar bounces, regional stocks and gold stutter
• What are the interest rates expectations for the major central banks?

The US dollars mostly higher versus the major currencies. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, approaching a recent two-week high, boosted by improving trade sentiment and stable Treasury yields

Before boarding his flight to the UK for a work vacation this morning, President Trump made a series of remarks touching on trade, currency policy, and foreign affairs:

• On the U.S. dollar, Trump emphasized: “When you have a strong dollar, you can’t sell anything,” but added, “I will never say I want a weak dollar.” He criticized China and Japan for deliberately keeping their currencies weak, while noting, “Japan totally opened up to the US.”

• On the European Union, he said there’s a “pretty good chance” for a trade deal and suggested the EU “may have to buy down their tariffs.” Discussions with the UK will involve “fine-tuning” a trade deal, though he warned there’s “not a lot of wiggle room on steel and aluminum.”

• Tariffs remain central to Trump’s trade agenda. He said he’ll be sending close to 200 tariff letters, most with 10% duties, and some with 15%. He also reiterated his plan to use tariff revenue to provide rebates to Americans as part of any deal.

• When asked about his conversation with Israeli PM Netanyahu regarding aid drops, Trump acknowledged they spoke but described the conversation as “sort of disappointing” and declined to provide details.

Trump has “a lot of balls in the air,” signaling ongoing and overlapping efforts across trade, foreign policy, and economic issues with perhaps a little controversy from the Epstein files. His weekend trip will combine personal business regarding his golf courses as well as key meetings with UK, Ireland, EU leaders. Focus will be on making trade deals.

Looking at the EURUSD, it is trading below the 1.1750 level – little changed on the day – after an up-and-down trading session. The pair extended back below its 100 hour moving average in the European session at 1.1736 on its way to a low at 1.1702 into the early US trading day. The decline may have been influenced by option expirations at the 1.1700 level. The price rebounded after getting within two pips of the 1.1700 strike price. The price is closing back above the 100 hour moving average, but only by a few pips as the market moves to neutral ahead of talks between Pres. Trump and EUs Ursula von der Leyen on trade in the United Kingdom this weekend. Trump put the odds of a deal at 50% but also said there were about 20 items to work through.

GBP/USD is pressured lower following disappointing UK retail sales data, reinforcing the pound’s downtrend around 1.3430 Pres. Trump will also be meeting with Prime Minister Starmer during his work vacation. Of course the US in the UK already made a trade deal, but there’s always room for improvement. For the GBPUSD it Traded lower for most the day, with little in the way of corrections. The price is closing below its 100 hour moving average at 1.3511, in its 200 hour moving average at 1.34637. The 200 hour moving average will be a close risk level going into the new trading week.

On the economic calendar today, the U.S. Advanced Durable Goods Report for June 2025 showed a sharp decline, with total orders falling 9.3%, a better result than the expected –10.8% drop. This comes after a massive +16.5% gain in May (revised from +16.4%)—the largest increase since July 2014. The June decline was the worst monthly performance since April 2020, driven largely by a 22.4% plunge in transportation equipment, which accounted for a $32.6 billion drop.

Despite the steep headline number, underlying components were more stable:

• Ex-transportation: +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected; prior revised up to +0.6%)

• Ex-defense: –9.4% (prior: +15.7%, revised from +15.5%)

• Core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft): –0.7% (vs. +0.2% expected; prior revised to +2.0%)

This sharp month-over-month volatility reflects the outsized impact of big-ticket items like aircraft and defense orders—sectors central to President Trump’s trade agenda, which emphasizes boosting U.S.-made exports through tariff-driven deals. These categories are likely to remain volatile as policy drives order timing and scale.

Looking ahead, the factory orders report due in a week or so will provide revised figures and further insight into June’s manufacturing activity. Traders and policymakers alike will be watching for signs of whether the underlying trend remains stable despite the month’s headline decline.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model held steady with a 2.4% growth estimate for Q2 2025, unchanged from its previous projection. According to the Fed, there were no significant revisions to the forecasts for any major GDP subcomponents following this week’s data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors. This suggests moderate and stable economic growth heading into the summer.

The final GDPNow estimate will be released on Tuesday, July 29, ahead of the official “advance” Q2 GDP report scheduled for Wednesday, July 30 at 8:30 AM ET. That BEA release will provide the first official look at overall U.S. economic performance in the second quarter and could be a key market mover.

U.S. stock indices closed higher on the day and week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both setting new record closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained and is now just 113 points shy of its all-time closing high, after coming within four points of that level earlier in the week before pulling back.

All four major indices posted weekly gains, led by the S&P.

Friday’s Closing Snapshot:

• Dow: +208.01 points (+0.47%) at 44,901.92

• S&P 500: +25.29 points (+0.40%) at 6,388.64

• NASDAQ: +50.36 points (+0.24%) at 21,108.32

• Russell 2000: +8.93 points (+0.40%) at 2,261.06

Weekly Performance:

• Dow: +1.26%

• S&P 500: +1.46%

• NASDAQ: +1.02%

• Russell 2000: +0.94%

The strong close reflects continued optimism around tech earnings, resilient economic data, and anticipation of next week’s Fed decision and GDP release.

Next week is shaping up to be an absolute tidal wave of market-moving events— the biggest of the quarter. At the center of it all is the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. While no rate change is expected, the tone of the Fed and Powell’s guidance will be closely scrutinized. Later in the week on Friday, U.S. employment report, which includes nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be released and analyzed. These releases could shape expectations for rate policy into the fall. Also important:

• Q2 Advance GDP on Wednesday morning (estimated +2.5%),
• Core PCE inflation on Thursday, and
• ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Meanwhile, central banks in Canada, and Japan are also on deck, with no changes expected but plenty of room for surprises.

On the earnings front, it’s a blockbuster lineup featuring four of the Magnificent 7—Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon—alongside household names like UnitedHealth, Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, MasterCard, ExxonMobil, and Chevron. The calendar kicks off Monday with Waste Management, then accelerates into a high-stakes earnings gauntlet through Friday. Whether it’s big tech, big oil, healthcare, or consumer staples—no sector is left untouched. With this dense mix of macro and micro catalysts, next week will test markets on every front: rates, inflation, labor, growth, and corporate profitability. Buckle up.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on July 30 (the Fed announces on that date too) and all 28 economists surveyed expect that the the central bank will keep rates steady at 2.75% at that meeting..

The poll also projects that the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight rate to 2.25% or lower by the end of 2025. That is according to 17 of the 28 economists.

The most recent policy decision on June 4, 2025 maintained the rate at 2.75 percent, following a 25 basis‑point cut on March 12, 2025, which brought the rate down from 3.00% to 2.75%. The central bank cited a softening economy, persistent inflation pressures, and trade‑related uncertainty—particularly from U.S. tariffs—as reasons to hold steady for now.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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