Risk markets regained all their early losses this week and continue to press higher. A benign FOMC and a weak US Jobs Report boosted markets going into the weekend.
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As the general election approaches, the government is talking more and more about fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, the independence of the Bank of England bars such talks. How will this affect the GBPUSD pair? Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan for GBPUSD. Weekly fundamental forecast for pound sterling The British pound closed five out of seven last trading sessions with green figures. Investors may have mistakenly believed that UK inflation was to blame. In March, it slowed to 3.2%, less than Bloomberg experts expected. This allowed the futures market to reduce the estimated size of the Bank of… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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The Federal Reserve didn’t help oil bulls as its inflation-fretting has seen us rate-cut doubts grow
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Federal Reserve officials are not in a rush to lower rates and have no intention of raising them, as Jerome Powell stated. However, the central bank’s final verdict will depend on the data. Let’s discuss this topic and make up a trading plan for EURUSD. Daily US dollar fundamental forecast Jerome Powell didn’t spook the markets. The good news for the S&P 500 and EURUSD is that the Fed Chairman did not come up with any surprises. The bad news is that the bar for cutting the Fed funds rate is high (though not as high as for raising it). Fed… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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I welcome my fellow traders! I have made a price forecast for the USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of margin zones methodology and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders. The euro and gold rose yesterday following the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Oil price forecast for today: USCrude analysis Oil continued its short-term downtrend yesterday. The price reached below the April 22 low, and the decline continued to the Target Zone 77.11 – 76.12. Today, the price is making a slight upward correction. If the correction continues, oil… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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JPY stole the show this week, thanks to stealthy intervention moves, while the Greenback made a few flashy moves around the FOMC decision & U.S. jobs data!
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Tezos (XTZ) stands out in crypto with its unique self-amending blockchain and a strong focus on community governance. The platform’s adaptability and innovative approach to smart contracts and decentralized applications suggest a promising future. While predictions lean towards a bullish trend for Tezos, marked by potential growth and increasing adoption, investors should note the crypto space’s inherent volatility and rapid market changes. This article will explore Tezos’s market trends, price predictions, and the factors shaping its future. Highlights and Key Points: (XTZ) Tezos Price Prediction 2024-2030 Today’s XTZ rate is around $0.9560. In 2024, the coin’s price will vary from… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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UPCOMING EVENTS:
Tuesday
The RBA is expected to keep the Cash Rate
unchanged at 4.35%, although the risk of a shock rate hike cannot be dismissed.
The last
inflation report was a cold shower for
rate cuts expectations in 2024 as the Q1 CPI figures beat forecasts across the
board by a big margin. The market pushed back the expectations for the first
rate cut further away with the first move now seen sometime in Q2 2025. The
central bank stated several times that the best contribution that monetary
policy can make to the wellbeing of the Australian people is to ensure that
inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe.
Thursday
The Japanese Average Cash Earnings Y/Y is
expected at 1.5% vs. 1.8% prior. The BoJ continues to see the achievement of
their inflation target and stating that another rate hike remains dependent
on the data. The timing for such a move remains uncertain though with July
and October being on the table, although the latter is the most probable one.
Governor Ueda has also mentioned that irrespective of what the data would say
in the near future, they would like to find a way and timing to reduce the
amount of JGB purchases.
The BoE is expected to keep interest rates
unchanged at 5.25%. The latest
inflation report showed the headline and
core figures moderating further but the services inflation measure, which is
what the central bank is more concerned about, remaining sticky at 6%. On
the labour market side, the
last data showed an increase in the
unemployment rate and job losses with high wage growth figures. At the last
meeting, the vote split changed with the
most hawkish members joining the hold camp and Dhingra remaining the usual
dissenter voting for a cut. The market expects the first rate cut in September
and it’s unlikely that we will see the BoE making major changes at the upcoming
decision.
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to
the Fed’s target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient
labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.
Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims
remain firm around the 1800K level. This week Initial Claims are expected at 210K
vs. 208K prior,
while there is no consensus at the time of writing for Continuing Claims
although the prior release showed a decrease to 1774K vs. 1797K expected and 1781K
prior.
Friday
The Canadian labour market report is
expected to show 17.5K jobs added in April vs. -2.2K in March with the
unemployment rate ticking higher to 6.2% vs. 6.1% prior. The last
report missed expectations across the board
with job losses and a big jump in the unemployment rate. There was also an
increase in wage growth, which is what the BoC is more concerned about, although
a looser labour market should depress wage gains going forward. The market
expects the central bank to deliver the first rate cut in June, although the probability for a July move is higher.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave financial markets a slight dovish nudge last night, seemingly ruling out any US interest rate hikes. Yesterday’s weak JOLTs data put the spotlight on Friday’s NFP report.
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Financial markets had a mixed run in the past trading sessions, as there were plenty of factors in play even before the highly-anticipated FOMC decision was announced.
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As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates on hold at 5.50% during their May meeting. Here’s how USD pairs reacted.
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