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Consolidation is a time to reflect on whether the key drivers of the EURUSD decline have disappeared. Or does the currency pair have room to fall? Let’s discuss this topic and make up a trading plan. Weekly US dollar fundamental forecast The head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, believes that the conflict in the Middle East will not change the ECB’s determination to cut rates in June. However, de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could change the US dollar’s plans. Greenback rose as a safe-haven asset amid the Brent rally. Now that North Sea oil is falling, speculators are selling… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Стрічка з Litefinance.com
The initial reading for Q2 growth from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model comes in at 3.9%. There is a long way to go before that actual advanced GDP number is finalized (three months).
In Q1, the Atlanta Fed’s predictive powers were tarnished a bit after forecasting 2.7% growth. The actual growth rate reported yesterday was 1.6%.
In their own words today:
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.9 percent on April 26. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 25 was 1.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 24.
The next estimate will be released on May 1
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) ordered the
amendment or withdrawal of 2,211 promotions in the first quarter of 2024. According
to the FCA’s quarterly data, the most targeted sectors are retail investments
and retail lending.
The data for the period between January 1, 2024, and
March 31, 2024, highlighted the actions taken against firms breaching financial
promotion rules and investigations into unregulated activities.
Enforcing Financial Promotion Rules
Among the financial services regulator’s
interventions, the retail investments and retail lending sectors experienced
the highest rate of amend/withdraw outcomes, accounting for 85% of the FCA‘s
actions with authorized firms.
Additionally, the FCA received reports about potential
unauthorized business activities, totaling 5,722 reports in the first quarter
of 2024. Responding to these reports, the FCA issued 597 alerts regarding unauthorized
firms and individuals.
Notably, 11% of these alerts were related to clone
scams, where fraudsters impersonate authorized firms to deceive consumers.
These scams often involve online breaches of financial promotion restrictions.
Oversight and Compliance
During the first quarter of 2024, the FCA implemented
several regulatory measures to enhance oversight and compliance in the
financial promotions space. Noteworthy initiatives include the introduction of the
financial promotions approval gateway, which requires firms to obtain approval
from the FCA before endorsing financial promotions on behalf of unauthorized
firms.
Additionally, the FCA conducted reviews to assess
compliance with Direct Offer Financial Promotion rules and took
proactive steps to address breaches where necessary. The regulator expressed commitment
to safeguarding consumers from misleading financial promotions.
In 2023, the FCA canceled 1,266 unauthorized firms and
imposed record fines. Additionally, the regulator removed over 10,000
potentially misleading adverts and issued 2,243 warnings about unauthorized
firms and individuals.
Additionally, the FCA imposed record fines totaling
£52,802,900 throughout the year, signaling a robust response to misconduct and
sending a clear deterrent message to the industry. The number of canceled
entities was double that of the previous year.
Nikhil Rathi, the Chief Executive of the FCA, mentioned: “We
know at the FCA our role is not just about regulating financial services, it’s
about safeguarding futures, supporting innovation and informed risk-taking and
maintaining a resilient financial ecosystem.”
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Feed from Financemagnates.com
As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The JPY is lower across all the major currencies after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates at approximately 0-0.10%, a decision made unanimously with a 9-0 vote. Notably, the BOJ removed a key statement from its monetary policy, no longer specifying the purchase of about 6 trillion yen in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) per month, indicating a subtle shift in its quantitative easing strategy. This follows a significant rate hike on March 18, the first in 17 years, suggesting a cautious approach to managing the nation’s economic recovery and monetary conditions. The bank acknowledged a moderate recovery in Japan’s economy, although it recognized some areas of weakness and improving output gaps. It also highlighted moderately heightened medium and long-term inflation expectations and generally balanced economic risks, despite the extremely high uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economic and price outlook. The BOJ emphasized the importance of vigilance towards currency and market movements and their potential impacts on the economy and prices. Additionally, it observed that more firms are beginning to pass on rising wages to sales prices, anticipating a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases to continue, with consumer spending expected to rise gradually under accommodative financial conditions.During a press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda outlined the central bank’s current monetary policy stance and considerations for future adjustments. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ plans to maintain easy financial conditions for the time being but indicated that the bank’s future monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic and price conditions, rather than being dictated by a single indicator. He acknowledged that while the Japanese economy has shown moderate recovery, there are still some weaknesses, and highlighted the need to monitor financial and foreign exchange market movements due to their potential impact on the economy and prices.
Governor Ueda clarified that the BOJ’s policy is not aimed at directly controlling the exchange rate but noted that they will continue to observe the effects of foreign exchange on the economy and inflation. Despite the weak yen not significantly influencing trend inflation so far, it has contributed somewhat to higher inflation forecasts. Ueda stated that the likelihood of reaching the BOJ’s 2% inflation target is gradually increasing and that adjustments to the degree of monetary easing might be necessary if underlying inflation rises. He also mentioned that foreign exchange fluctuations could be a factor in monetary policy decisions if they significantly affect underlying inflation, though the impact of FX on inflation is generally considered temporary.
The decision did cause down and up volatility (off of the initial reaction with bond buying omitted from the statement). However, after comments and further review, the net effect has been a continued run to the upside in the JPY pairs (lower JPY). The USDJPY is trading at a new high of 156.829. The next major stop 160.00? The price is running from the 100 hour MA which is down at 155.220 (blue line on the chart below). The 200 hour MA did stall the fall (green line). Buyers leaned against the MAs on the dip. Going forward, it would take a move below that MA to increase the bearish bias.
Today in the US, the Core PCE price index for March will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Off of the measure imbedded in the US GDP suggests the number will be higher than expectations of 0.3% and 2.7% YoY. The market will be focused on revisions as well to gauge the trend. Personal income and consumption (0.5% and 0.6% estimate) are also due at 8:30 AM ET.
At 10 AM ET, the U of Michigan consumer sentiment (FINAL) will be released. The preliminary came in at 77.9. Last month was 79.4. Current conditions preliminary came in at 79.3 (vs 82.5 last month) and expectations came in at 77.0 (vs 77.4 last month)
US stocks are higher on the back of support after earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft which BEAT expectations after the close. Below is a summary of some of the major releases after the close and whether they beat or missed vs the expectations:
Western Digital Corp (WDC): Shares are trading up 0.81% in premarket trading.
Snap Inc (SNAP): Shares are soaring by 25.44% in premarket trading
T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS): Shares are trading down -1.12%.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): Shares are trading up 11.79% in premarket trading
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD): Shares are trading down -0.18% in premarket trading.
Intel Corp (INTC): Shares are down -8.0% in pre-market trading.
Microsoft Corp (MSFT). Shares are trading up 4.35%
Some earnings today included oil giant Phillips, Exxon Mobile and Chevron. Shares of Phillips 66 is down -0.37%, Exxon shares are trading down -0.93%, while Chevron shares are down -1.0%. Below are some of the major releases from the morning.
Phillips 66 (PSX)
AutoNation (AN)
Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Chevron Corp (CVX)
Centene Corp (CNC)
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:
In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher after Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations after close yesterday
The European indices are trading higher ahead of the US open:
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher
Looking at the US debt market, yields are mostly lower after rising yesterday after the GDP data.
Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:
European benchmark 10-year yields are lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
GBP/USD closed the third consecutive day in positive territory on Thursday and climbed to its highest level in two weeks at 1.2540 early Friday.
Стрічка від Fxstreet.com
Consistently profitable trading requires focus, so you’ll need your mind and body in top form to execute your strategies flawlessly.
Подача з Babypips.com
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 81.08 with a target of 94.00 – 100.00. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 81.08 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 76.50 – 71.00. Analysis: supposedly, a downward correction is completed as second wave of larger degree (2) on the daily chart. The ascending third wave (3) started forming, with wave 1 of (3) developing as its part. On the H4 time frame, there is the fifth wave of smaller degree v of 1 developing, with wave (iii) of v forming… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Стрічка з Litefinance.com
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 153.60 with a target of 158.34 – 161.50. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 153.60 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 150.75 – 146.44. Analysis: an ascending wave of larger degree C continues forming on the daily chart, with fifth wave (5) of C unfolding as its part. The third wave 3 of (5) is unfolding on the H4 time frame, with first wave of smaller degree i of 3 and corrective second wave ii of 3 completed as its parts…. Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Стрічка з Litefinance.com
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 2293.07 with a target of 2450.00 – 2500.00. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 2293.07 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 2154.83 – 2019.86. Analysis: a descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave (4) of larger degree on the daily chart. The fifth wave (5) is unfolding, with first wave 3 of (5) forming as its part. Apparently, the third wave of smaller degree iii of 3 is forming on the H4 time frame, with wave (iii) of… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Стрічка з Litefinance.com
SNB chairman, Thomas Jordan, says that they do take climate change very seriously but notes that:
“We should not give the impression that we can solve all the problems of the world with monetary policy.”
He also adds that the central bank takes into account all risks with its investments and that they do have exclusion criterias when making investment decisions. This of course is related to protests against the SNB, with environmental groups demanding for the Swiss central bank to offload investments in firms that are believed to be linked to global warming and climate change.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Massive yen shorts raises the risk of a sharp USD/JPY reversal should authorities intervene in the FX market to strengthen the yen. US PCE a potential catalyst?
Стрічка від Dailyfx.com
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.2302 with a target of 1.3000 – 1.3200. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2302 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2220 – 1.2034. Analysis: the first wave of larger degree (1) is presumably formed, a correction developed as second wave (2), and the ascending third wave (3) started unfolding on the daily chart. On the H4 chart, wave 1 of (3) is formed, and a descending correction is presumably completed as second wave 2 of (3). Apparently, the third wave… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Стрічка з Litefinance.com