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Fed monetary policy report: Inflation has slowed notably, remains elevated

Fed monetary policy report: Inflation has slowed notably, remains elevated

  • Six-month core PCE rose at at annual 2.5% rate
  • Inflation measured over relatively short periods may exaggerate idiosyncratic, temporary factors
  • Labor market has remained relatively tight, demand has eased, supply has trended higher
  • Wage gains slowed in 2023, but remain above pace consistent with 2% inflation
  • Risks to achieving Fed’s goals moving into better balance
  • Not appropriate to reduce target range until we have greater confidence inflation moving to 2%
  • Ongoing softening of labor demand and improvements in labor supply should contribute to a further slowing in core services price inflation

This report is more of a review than a tool to signal what’s coming on policy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The case for a super-bubble in Nvidia shares

The case for a super-bubble in Nvidia shares

Nvidia is already the third-most-valuable company on the planet, trailing only Microsoft and Apple. It’s the undisputed leader in the production of chips essential for powering the generative artificial intelligence revolution.

Companies are throwing as much money as possible at Nvidia in order to stockpile chips in datacenters that will churn out unique images, videos, text and other content in the years ahead.

Shares of the company have surged by 65% year-to-date, just two months into the year. The gain in Nvidia shares alone this year has powered 32% of the gain in the S&P 500.

It’s a stunning achievement but for all that, shares aren’t that expensive. They’re trading at 32x forecast earnings in the next 12 months and have grown earnings at a pace never seen before at any company (in dollar terms at least). For context, companies during the dot-com era were trading at 60-100x earnings; so on that alone, shares could more than double.

What could really propel its growth further?

Looking at the chart, it’s incredible (particularly as a guy who owned shares in 2011, but hasn’t since then unfortunately). It’s tempting to think that it will all come crashing down. The company is running with +75% margins right now and they don’t even manufacture their own chips. Surely someone will catch up by the end of the decade with something at least comperable to what they’re offering, right? The long history of chips shows that it’s more of a commoditized product than a moat.

Maybe. But let’s set that all aside for a minute.

Bubbles happen because of mass psychology. A mania mindset emerges as people come to grips with a world-changing idea. All the pieces are already in place for that with Nvidia and its rise from $150 at the dawn of ChatGPT to $818 now captures much of that.

But is 5x really a bubble in the company that’s clearly the leader in AI? Especially when actual earnings have matched the growth rate of the stock?

I would argue not. This could be just the beginning. Mass psychology is hard to predict but here’s the line of thinking that could lead Nvidia much higher:

Virtually all invention in the future will be via AI

Human invention is a relic. Already we’ve seen phamaceuticals that were developed via AI and it’s just the tip of the iceberg. With good data (and that might not be easy to find), generative AI can unlock the molecular mysteries of the human body and how we can enhance and heal ourselves in ways never before considered. AI is going to cure cancer and so much more.

That’s just in one field. It could do the same in materials, design, engineering, accounting, programming and many more. Within that, whoever has the largest army of chips owns those inventions. It’s the key to unlocking the future and it will be winner-take-all.

Moreover, the stakes may even be higher for governments as generative AI is tasked with weapons design, including biological, chemical and nuclear weapons along with defenses against those things. What’s that worth to the US, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea It will become a national security priority to amass the largest bank of AI chips possible, with no cost being too high.

Finally, it will be AI designing the next generation of computer chips. Nvidia’s main task will be using its own chips to create the next generation of chips and so on. It will also use that power to design custom chips for clients, something it’s already working on.

“The chip industry is the foundation of nearly every other industry in the world,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia.

Now do I believe all of that will come to pass? I can certainly see some holes in that argument. Do I think that enough people will believe in that idea to create perhaps the biggest single-stock bubble in history? Enough to make Nvidia the most-valuable company in the world (it would only need to rise 50% from here)?

I think that very soon people will be screaming that same argument as Nvidia crosses $1000/share and beyond.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Prop Trading Firm MyFundedFX Gears Up for cTrader Platform Launch

Prop Trading Firm MyFundedFX Gears Up for cTrader Platform Launch

MyFundedFX has completed integrating cTrader following
weeks of turmoil in the industry. According to a statement on X, the proprietary
trading platform will be “stress testing it and ensuring it is bug free.”

MyFundedFX mentioned: “Later next week, we aim
to go live with CTrader powered by Purple Trading SC. We have also been handed
over our MatchTrader server license and have begun the integration work for
that. Thank you for your patience as we provide more options for everyone!”

Adjusting to the Transition

On February 19, MyFundedFX, announced that it was
restricting US traders effective immediately. The platform exclusively restricted
users in this region to trading DXtrade challenges.

Besides that, the firm asked US traders to prepare
for a migration of their accounts from MetaTrader to DXtrade. This migration
marked a response to ongoing regulatory pressures and industry shifts.

Currently, most proprietary trading platforms are
completing their migration to new platforms driven by MetaQuotes’ tightening
regulations, especially concerning US compliance.

These changes affecting the industry began when
major brokerage firms like Blackbull Markets and Purple Trading terminated
partnerships with proprietary trading platforms due to compliance concerns.

Blackbull Markets’ decision to sever ties with
Funding Pips, a Dubai-based trading firm, underscored the severity of the
regulatory challenges faced by the industry. MetaQuotes’ actions have resulted
in a broader diversification trend among proprietary trading platforms, as they
integrate alternative trading platforms such as cTrader and Match-Trader.

Adapting to Regulatory Pressures

Some platforms, including The5ers and FTMO, have
halted services to US-based clients altogether, reflecting the broader industry
response to regulatory shifts.

Currently, many firms are dealing with the
aftermath, either ceasing operations or scrambling to find alternative
solutions. At Finance Magnates, we have created a live table to track the
changes by major proprietary trading companies.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Integrated Payment Ecosystems: Orchestrating Seamless End-to-End Transaction Efficiency

Integrated Payment Ecosystems: Orchestrating Seamless End-to-End Transaction Efficiency

At the heart of integrated payment ecosystems lies the seamless
integration of diverse components that traditionally operated in silos. Payment
gateways, financial institutions, merchants, and consumers converge into a
harmonious symphony of interconnectedness. This orchestration ensures that
every facet of the payment process is not just connected but collaborates
synergistically, eliminating redundancies and optimizing the entire transaction
journey.

Streamlining Transactions for
Businesses

Integrated payment ecosystems bring a paradigm shift in how businesses
manage their transactions. By consolidating payment processing, reconciliation,
and reporting into a unified system, businesses experience newfound efficiency.
This streamlining not only reduces operational complexities but also enhances
the overall transparency of financial transactions. As businesses navigate
through a singular integrated interface, they gain real-time insights and
control over their financial landscape.

Customer-Centric Experiences

For consumers, the impact of integrated payment ecosystems is manifest in
the form of enhanced experiences. The seamlessness of transactions, regardless
of the chosen payment method or platform, becomes a hallmark of
customer-centricity. Whether making purchases online, in-store, or through
mobile applications, consumers experience a consistent and frictionless
journey. This cohesion not only fosters convenience but also elevates customer
satisfaction, laying the groundwork for long-term loyalty.

Breaking Down Silos: The Omnichannel
Imperative

Traditional payment systems often operated within silos, creating
fragmented customer experiences. Integrated payment ecosystems, however, break
down these silos, embracing the omnichannel imperative.

Whether customers
engage through e-commerce platforms, mobile apps, or physical stores, the
integrated nature of these ecosystems ensures a consistent and coherent payment
experience. This convergence aligns with the evolving expectations of modern
consumers who seek seamless transitions between various channels.

Harnessing the Power of APIs

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) play a pivotal role in the
functionality of integrated payment ecosystems
. By allowing different
components to communicate and share data in real-time, APIs act as the conduits
for the smooth flow of information. This not only enhances transaction speed
but also opens avenues for innovation. As businesses and financial institutions
leverage APIs, the potential for creating tailored, value-added services within
the payment ecosystem expands.

Enhanced Security Protocols

The interconnected nature of integrated payment ecosystems necessitates
robust security measures. As transactions traverse through various nodes, the
implementation of advanced encryption, tokenization, and biometric
authentication becomes imperative. Future developments may see the integration
of artificial intelligence (AI) for proactive threat detection, ensuring that
security measures evolve in tandem with the sophisticated strategies employed
by cyber threats.

The Role of Blockchain in Transparency

As integrated payment ecosystems evolve, the role of blockchain
technology becomes increasingly significant. Blockchain, with its decentralized
and immutable ledger, contributes to transparency and trust within the payment
process. Future developments may witness a broader adoption of blockchain, not
just for cryptocurrency transactions but as a foundational technology ensuring
the integrity and traceability of all financial interactions within the
ecosystem.

Regulatory Considerations and
Compliance

The interconnected nature of payment ecosystems raises important
considerations regarding regulatory compliance. As these ecosystems traverse
international boundaries, navigating a complex web of regulations becomes
paramount. Future developments may see advancements in regulatory technology
(RegTech) solutions tailored for integrated payment ecosystems, ensuring
adherence to evolving standards while minimizing the complexities associated
with compliance.

Future-Proofing Financial Interactions

The trajectory of integrated payment ecosystems is a
journey towards future-proofing financial interactions. The seamless
integration of components, the embrace of omnichannel experiences, the
harnessing of APIs, and the incorporation of blockchain technology collectively
position these ecosystems as architects of efficiency and innovation. As
businesses and consumers alike embark on this journey, the implications are
profound, reshaping not just how transactions unfold today but charting a course
towards a future where the entire payment landscape is seamlessly connected,
efficient, and secure.

This article was written by Pedro Ferreira at www.financemagnates.com.

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